Modelling and Analysis of Counter-Terrorism: Via Drone

Document Type : Original Article


Department of Mathematics, University of Ilorin, Nigeria


The 9/11 witnessed the most destructive terrorist assaults in recorded history, and the attacks led to far bloodier conflicts as part of the subsequent war on terror. Terrorism has become the defining issue of International politics of the 21 century. Hence because of the spread of the ideology, the drone together with Information Communication Technology (ICT) contribute to the counter-terrorism mission by providing universal intelligence, surveillance and hostile strike capabilities to control and reduce the recruitment pool of terrorist groups. This paper focuses on Modelling and Analysis of Counter-terrorism using Drone as a control technique with five compartments. The results showed that use of drone to fight against terrorist/insurgency appear to be 80\% significant reduction on their strength, kill leaders, foot soldiers and put the criminal elements in a state of confusion. Finally, the effective counter-terrorist and counter-insurgent depend on drone deployment across the borders for monitoring.


[1] G. Adamu, M.O. Ibrahim, Mathematical modelling of dynamics behaviour of terrorism and control, Caspian. J. Math. Sci., 9(1) 2020, 68-85.
[2] H.T. Alemneh, N.Y. Alemu, Mathematical modelling with optimal control analysis of social media addiction, Infect. Dise. Modell., 6 2021, 405-419.
[3] A. Farrow, Drone Warfare as a Military Instrument of Counterterrorism Strategy, Air. Space. Power. J., 28(4) 2006, 4-23.
[4] Global Terrorism Index, Measuring the Impact of Terrorism, Inst. Econs. Peace. Sydney., 2020.
[5] O.M. Ibrahim, D. Okuonghae, M.N. Ikhile, Mathematical Modelling of the Population Dynamics of Age-Structured Criminal Gangs with Correctional Intervention Measures, Appl. Math. Modell., 107 2022, 39-71.
[6] O.M. Ibrahim, D. Okuonghae, M.N. Ikhile, Optimal control model for criminal gang population in a limited-resource setting, Int. J. Dynamics. Cont., 2022, 1-16.
[7] J. P. LaSalle, The stability of dynamical systems, society for industrial and applied mathematics, In Proce. Conf. Series. Appl. Math., 25 1976.
[8] S. Lenhart, J.T. Workman, Optimal control applied to biological models, Chapman and Hall/CRC, London., 2018.
[9] M. Martcheva, An introduction to mathematical epidemiology, New York, Springer., 61 2015, 9-31.
[10] D. R. Merkin, Introduction to the Theory of Stability, Springer. Sci. Business. Media., 2012.
[11] D. R. Merkin, Introduction to the Theory of Stability of the Motion, Springer. Sci. Business. Media.,1997.
[12] F. Mohammad, U.A.M. Roslan, Analysis on the crime model using dynamical approach, In AIP conf. proce., 1870(1) 2017, 040067.
[13] A.A. Momoh, A. Alhassan, M.O. Ibrahim, S.A. Amoo, Curtailing the spread of drug-abuse and violence co-menace: An optimal control approach, Alexandria Eng, J., 61(6) 2021, 4399-4422.
[14] F.C. Onuoha, C. Nwangwu, M.I. Ugwueze, Counterinsurgency operations of the Nigerian military and Boko Haram insurgency: expounding the viscid manacle, Security Journal, 33(3) 2020, 1-26.
[15] A.B. Okrinya, J.I. Consul, Mathematical Modelling of Kidnapping with Rehabilitation, J. Sci. Eng. Res., 8 2018, 195-20.
[16] C. Okoye, O.C. Collins, G.C.E. Mbah, Mathematical approach to the analysis of terrorism dynamics, Security J., 2020, 1-12.
[17] M. Rivera-Castro, P. Padmanabhan, C. Caiseda, P. Seshaiyer, C. Boria-Guanill, Mathematical modelling, analysis and simulation of the spread of gangs in interacting youth and adult populations, Letter in Biomathematics., 6(2) 2019, 1-19.
[18] S. Ryan, Drones, Aid and Education: The Three Ways to Counter Terrorism, London, South Bank University, 2019.
[19] M. Santoprete, Countering violent extremism: A mathematical model, Appl. Math. Comput., 358 2019, 314-329.
[20] I.J. Udoh, M.O. Oladejo, Optimal Human Resources Allocation in Counter-Terrorism Operation: A Mathematical Deterministic Model, Int. J. Adv. Sci. Res. Eng., 5(1) 2019, 96-115.
[21] United Nations Security Council, Resolution 2462: Adopted by the Security Council at its 8496th meeting, 2019, 1-8.
[22] P. Van den Driessche, Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models, Infec. Dise. Modell., 2(3) 2017, 288-303.
[23] J.I. Walsh, The effectiveness of drone strikes in counterinsurgency and counter-terrorism campaigns, Strategic Studies Inst. US. Army. War. Coll. Press., 2013.
[24] J.P. Yaacoub, H. Noura, O. Salman, A. Chehab, Security analysis of drones systems: Attacks, limitations, and recommendations, Internet of Things, 11 2020, 100218.
Volume 3, Issue 3
September 2022
Pages 57-75
  • Receive Date: 23 May 2022
  • Revise Date: 28 July 2022
  • Accept Date: 29 September 2022
  • First Publish Date: 29 September 2022