Predicting customer churn in the fast-Moving consumer goods segment of the retail industry using deep learning

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of computer science, Islamic Azad University, Naragh Branch, Iran

2 Department of computer science, Qom university of technology, Qom. Iran

Abstract
The non-contractual environment, many brands, and substitute products make customer retention relatively tricky in the fast-moving consumer goods market. In addition, there is no such thing as a completely loyal customer, as most buyers purchase from several almost identical brands. If the customer leaves the transaction without notice, the company may need help responding and compensating. Companies should proactively identify potential customers before they leave the deal. Transactional data, readily available in point of sale (POS) systems, provides a wealth of information that can be harnessed to extract customer transactions and analyze their purchase patterns. This offers a robust foundation for predicting and preventing customer churn. This research shows how transactional data features are generated and are essential for predicting customer churn in the fast-moving consumer goods sector of the retail industry. This research presents data concerning the customers of a capillary sales and distribution company in the food industry. We have implemented standard machine learning methods with the available data in this research. However, we have also employed advanced deep-learning techniques to enhance our predictive capabilities. The results and accuracy of these methods, including Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM), have been thoroughly compared, providing a solid basis for our findings.

Keywords

Subjects


[1] Abbasimehr, H., Setak, M., Tarokh, M. J. (2011). A neuro-fuzzy classifier for customer churn prediction. International Journal of Computer Applications, 19(8), 35-41.
[2] Buckinx, W., Baesens, B., Van den Poel, D., Van Kenhove, P., Vanthienen, J. (2002). Using machine learning techniques to predict defection of top clients. WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies, 28.
[3] Buckinx, W., Van den Poel, D. (2005). Customer base analysis: partial defection of behaviourally loyal clients in a non-contractual FMCG retail setting. European journal of operational research, 164(1), 252-268.
[4] Burez, J., Van den Poel, D. (2009). Handling class imbalance in customer churn prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(3), 4626-4636.
[5] Calciu, M., Crie, D., Micheaux, A. (2015). Recognising dangerous drop out incidents as opposed to accidents to improve the efficiency of triggers reducing customer churn. Application to RFM customer segments of a fast moving customer goods retail chain. In Proceedings International Marketing Trends Conference.
[6] Cao, J., Yu, X., Zhang, Z. (2015). Integrating OWA and data mining for analyzing customers churn in E-commerce. Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, 28(2), 381-392.
[7] Figalist, I., Elsner, C., Bosch, J., Olsson, H. H. (2019). Customer churn prediction in B2B contexts. In Software Business: 10th International Conference, ICSOB 2019, Jyväskylä, Finland, November 18–20, 2019, Proceedings 10 (pp. 378-386). Springer International Publishing.
[8] Gallo, A. (2014). The value of keeping the right customers. Harvard Business Review.
[9] GU, J., Wang, Z., Kuen, J., Ma, L., Shahroudy, A., Shuai, B., Chen, T. (2018). Recent advances in convolutional neural networks. Pattern recognition, 77, 354-377.
[10] Lipowski, M. M. (2018). Customer churn as a purchasing journey stage.
[11] Miguéis, V. L., Camanho, A., e Cunha, J. F. (2013). Customer attrition in retailing: an application of multivariate adaptive regression splines. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(16), 6225-6232.
[12] Murphy, J. A. (2001). The lifebelt: the definitive guide to managing customer retention. John Wiley Sons.
[13] Saha, S., Saha, C., Haque, M. M., Alam, M. G. R., Talukder, A. (2024). ChurnNet: Deep Learning Enhanced Customer Churn Prediction in Telecommunication Industry. IEEE Access.
[14] Sharkas, M., Attallah, O. (2024). Color-CADx: a deep learning approach for colorectal cancer classification through triple convolutional neural networks and discrete cosine transform. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 6914.
[15] Shoaib, T.: Customers Churn Prediction in Retail Store (2018). https://doi.org/10.13140/RG. 2.2.30545.38242.
[16] Subramanian, R. S., Yamini, B., Sudha, K., Sivakumar, S. (2024). Ensemble-based deep learning techniques for customer churn prediction model. Kybernetes.
[17] Sulistiani, H., Tjahyanto, A. (2017). Comparative analysis of feature selection method to predict customer loyalty. IPTEK the Journal of Engineering, 3(1), 1-5.
[18] Sulistiani, H., Tjahyanto, A. (2017). Comparative analysis of feature selection method to predict customer loyalty. IPTEK the Journal of Engineering, 3(1), 1-5.
[19] Tamaddoni Jahromi, A., Stakhovych, S., Ewing, M. (2017). The impact of personalised incentives on the profitability of customer retention campaigns.
[20] Vafeiadis, T., Diamantaras, K. I., Sarigiannidis, G., Chatzisavvas, K. C. (2015). A comparison of machine learning techniques for customer churn prediction. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 55, 1-9.
[21] Verbeke, W., Martens, D., Mues, C., Basins, B. (2011). Building comprehensible customer churn prediction models with advanced rule induction techniques. Expert systems with applications, 38(3), 2354-2364.
[22] Vu, V. H. (2024). Predict customer churn using combination deep learning networks model. Neural Computing and Applications, 36(9), 4867-4883.
[23] Yadav, B., Indian, A., Meena, G. (2024). Recognizing Off-line Devanagari Handwritten Characters Using Modified Lenet-5 Deep Neural Network. Procedia Computer Science, 235, 799-809.
[24] Zhang, N., Ding, S., Zhang, J., Xue, Y. (2018). An overview on restricted Boltzmann machines. Neurocomputing, 275, 1186-1199.
Volume 5, Issue 3
Summer 2024
Pages 58-79

  • Receive Date 16 June 2024
  • Revise Date 13 July 2024
  • Accept Date 21 September 2024